Nearly two years ago, the MDC party undeniably won the general election yet was forced into a power-sharing government with Zanu-PF.
As if that is not outrageous enough, Mugabe has refused to keep his side of the pact signed with Morgan Tsvangirai in 2008. Human rights and the rule of law are being systematically violated - including the invasion of white-owned farms. For the next election, which could be as early as next June or as late as 2013, Zanu-PF leaders have made it clear that they will not make the same mistake as in 2008. Namely, they will use violent intimidation as early as possible before an election.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC), especially South Africa's Jacob Zuma, need to be more forceful. This will have much more impact on Zimbabwe than condemnations from the Western world. The SADC and AU (African Union) need to send in peacekeeping forces a full sixth months before the election.
The EU also have a role. As Zuma has called for, the EU should lift its sanctions against Mugabe and his comrades (which ban them visiting the EU) in return for peaceful election monitored by international observers.
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
Friday, 5 November 2010
A politicisation of British justice
When the then Israel Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livini, accepted to speak in London last December, the British magistrates issued an arrest warrant against her for war crimes. She duly cancelled her trip. A similar situation has occurred with Israel's Deputy Prime Minister last month.
This is the result of pressure groups applying to the British courts whenever an high-level Israeli official wants to visit the UK. In theory, they have every right to do so. A legal principle known as universal jurisdiction, allows courts to try suspects in cases of crimes against humanity, even if they are a foreign national who committed the alleged crime in a foreign country. This principle does have its merit: it allows courts to try those who would not otherwise be tried - because the concerned country have a shoddy legal system. This is why Radovan Karadzic, accused of the genocide at Srebrenica and Charles Taylor, the former tyrant of Liberia is on trial at the Hague.
However, the situation with Israel is a mere politicisation of justice by pressure groups. It is, to say the least, unhelpful to our diplomatic relations. Israel have all but suspended high-level contacts with Britain. By preventing official coming to the UK, we are in no way advancing the cause of creating a two-state territorial settlement.
This is the result of pressure groups applying to the British courts whenever an high-level Israeli official wants to visit the UK. In theory, they have every right to do so. A legal principle known as universal jurisdiction, allows courts to try suspects in cases of crimes against humanity, even if they are a foreign national who committed the alleged crime in a foreign country. This principle does have its merit: it allows courts to try those who would not otherwise be tried - because the concerned country have a shoddy legal system. This is why Radovan Karadzic, accused of the genocide at Srebrenica and Charles Taylor, the former tyrant of Liberia is on trial at the Hague.
However, the situation with Israel is a mere politicisation of justice by pressure groups. It is, to say the least, unhelpful to our diplomatic relations. Israel have all but suspended high-level contacts with Britain. By preventing official coming to the UK, we are in no way advancing the cause of creating a two-state territorial settlement.
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Why we are not heading for a double dip recession...
The economy is recovering faster than expected - up 0.8% rather than the lowly 0.4% predicted by City analysts. The encouraging part is that this is largely driven by the private sector. Construction, which did not fare well in the recession, expanded by 4%.
The cuts in government spending will, cetribus paribus, lead to a double-dip recession. However, this is not the case - other factors in the economy are improving.
The pound has depreciated by approximately a quarter in two years. A weaker pound gives the UK a competitive advantage when exporting. This continued depreciation will give the confidence to firms to invest.
Coporation tax is being reduced from 28% to 24% over a four year period. This will reduce the amount firms lose from profit and hence, provide a greater incentive for firms to expand.
Further, interest rates are at an all time low - the base rate is 0.5%. This reduces the incentive to save and more importantly, makes it more economically possible for firms to finance their investments. It reduces the opportunity cost of investment as returns do not have to be as high to make a profit - less is paid on interest.
Thus, we can see, that other components of aggregate demand - namely, private investment and net exports will make up for the decrease in government expenditure. A double-dip recession is not inevitable.
The cuts in government spending will, cetribus paribus, lead to a double-dip recession. However, this is not the case - other factors in the economy are improving.
The pound has depreciated by approximately a quarter in two years. A weaker pound gives the UK a competitive advantage when exporting. This continued depreciation will give the confidence to firms to invest.
Coporation tax is being reduced from 28% to 24% over a four year period. This will reduce the amount firms lose from profit and hence, provide a greater incentive for firms to expand.
Further, interest rates are at an all time low - the base rate is 0.5%. This reduces the incentive to save and more importantly, makes it more economically possible for firms to finance their investments. It reduces the opportunity cost of investment as returns do not have to be as high to make a profit - less is paid on interest.
Thus, we can see, that other components of aggregate demand - namely, private investment and net exports will make up for the decrease in government expenditure. A double-dip recession is not inevitable.
Monday, 1 November 2010
Zoning in Nigeria
First, we must congratulate Nigeria. In 1999, after year of military rule, it returned to a democracy. It has had three civilian presidents in a row - and not thrown out by the army.
However, the democracy was set up on the notion of "zoning": a rota where candidates for many public positions are alternated between the Muslim north and the Christian south. This includes the presidency.
Although this sytem was intended to quell Christian fears that they were being shut out politically, it is nevertheless flawed. Candidates, are chosen more on their place of birth than their competency. Nigeria could do with a fully meritocratically chosen president - life expectancy lies at a meagre 49 years and most oil revenues end up in the wrong hands.
Equally important is that zoning accentuates the rift between north and south. In the long term, it does not unite Nigeria - it merely emphasises the difference. This is not the way forward. Policy debates are more likely to be seen through the prism of region and religion.
However, the democracy was set up on the notion of "zoning": a rota where candidates for many public positions are alternated between the Muslim north and the Christian south. This includes the presidency.
Although this sytem was intended to quell Christian fears that they were being shut out politically, it is nevertheless flawed. Candidates, are chosen more on their place of birth than their competency. Nigeria could do with a fully meritocratically chosen president - life expectancy lies at a meagre 49 years and most oil revenues end up in the wrong hands.
Equally important is that zoning accentuates the rift between north and south. In the long term, it does not unite Nigeria - it merely emphasises the difference. This is not the way forward. Policy debates are more likely to be seen through the prism of region and religion.
Thursday, 28 October 2010
The way forward: quantitative easing
The economy is growing faster than expected - 0.8% in the third quarter, from July to September.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel winning economist, argued in the New York Times last week that "premature fiscal austerity will lead to a renewed economic slump." However,this does not seem to be the case: tightening fiscal policy has improved confidence in the economy. The credit agency, Standard & Poor, announced that Britain's AAA status is now "stable." Spending cuts will be a cataylst for a virtuous circle: improved confidence leading to a boost in private consumption and investment. On the other hand, high levels of public spending will only serve to crowd out the private sector.
But as fiscal policy tightens, there needs to be another path to stimulate output. This is where monetary policy comes in. The MPC should expand the money supply through quantitative easing. This will reduce the cost of money. Yes, short term interest rates are already near zero, but long term rates on bonds and mortgages need to be lower. This is the way forward.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel winning economist, argued in the New York Times last week that "premature fiscal austerity will lead to a renewed economic slump." However,this does not seem to be the case: tightening fiscal policy has improved confidence in the economy. The credit agency, Standard & Poor, announced that Britain's AAA status is now "stable." Spending cuts will be a cataylst for a virtuous circle: improved confidence leading to a boost in private consumption and investment. On the other hand, high levels of public spending will only serve to crowd out the private sector.
But as fiscal policy tightens, there needs to be another path to stimulate output. This is where monetary policy comes in. The MPC should expand the money supply through quantitative easing. This will reduce the cost of money. Yes, short term interest rates are already near zero, but long term rates on bonds and mortgages need to be lower. This is the way forward.
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
Guide to the Comprehensive Spending Review 2010
Why is there a Spending Review?
The Comprehensive Spending Review, lead by Sir Phillip Green, will examine public expenditure from the last three years to try to identify potential savings.
This review essentially aims to reshape and resize the state sector in the economy – but at the same time, maintaining fairness and encouraging economic growth. Even before the recession, the structural budget deficit of the
Thus, this review has been undertaken to tackle this problem – by cutting government spending.
What has Mr Osbourne announced today?
George Osborne mapped out £81bn of spending cuts over the next four years to reduce the budget deficit. The average cut in departmental budgets is 19%.
The headline saving - £18bn in total from unprecedented cuts in welfare spending. Incapacity benefits are to be reformed – they will become means-tested.
Among the biggest hit was the department of Eric Pickles, the Communities Secretary, whose budget was cut by 68%. However, responsibility for deciding how to make the cuts is being transferred to local councils.
Thousands of prisoners will be released under plans to cut the jail population by 3,000 over the next four years. For example, plans to build a 1,500 inmate jail in
Health budgets will rise by 0.1% in real terms but plans to expand free prescription entitlements and one-to-one nursing care for cancer patients have been scrapped.
Schools funding has also been partly protected – the rise, after inflation is factored out, amounts to 0.1%. This includes an increase in money intended for children from poor families for free school meals. However, capital spending will be cut by 60%.
The retirement age will move up to 66 by 2020 – millions of workers will have to wait longer to receive their state pension. Nevertheless, pensioners’ winter fuel payments were protected, as were free bus passes and TV licences.
The annual budget for home energy efficiency improvements will fall from £345 millions this year to £100 million in 2012-13. The policing budget is to be cut by a fifth and banks now face a permanent tax levy.
Wednesday, 6 October 2010
Just too draconian
In July, clashes between the Romas and the police triggered the French government to crackdown on illegal settlements with "Romas as priority" and then to deport them.
There are two problems with this. First, it is an unjustifiable generalisation - the government are stereotyping a whole ethnic group and placing them under one branch. This is a populist, xenophobic measure. If the British government were to round up lawbreakers "with blacks as a priority," there would be a mass uproar. This is exactly what the French government are doing.
Second, it is the wrong way to address the problem. Yes, perhaps, many Romas are involved in crime, prostitution and trafficking - but this is a matter of law and order, not deportation. If they are breaking the law, then just like anyone else in society, the police must deal with it. The approach of the French government is too extreme. Enforcing the law through the police force is a proportionate response that will achieve the same end - making French society a safer place.
Regardless, it is the duty of the French government to look after its fellow EU citizens. Romas in the Bronx in New York are doing so well unlike their European counterparts, who fare the worst on every social index. This is because the American government have helped to educate, and not just shun, the Romas. Education is the long-term, sustainable solution if we are to solve Europe's biggest social problem - and France have a duty to help fulfil that aim.
Instead, Sarkozy has chosen the easy, immoral route that forsakes their moral duty and is too draconian.
There are two problems with this. First, it is an unjustifiable generalisation - the government are stereotyping a whole ethnic group and placing them under one branch. This is a populist, xenophobic measure. If the British government were to round up lawbreakers "with blacks as a priority," there would be a mass uproar. This is exactly what the French government are doing.
Second, it is the wrong way to address the problem. Yes, perhaps, many Romas are involved in crime, prostitution and trafficking - but this is a matter of law and order, not deportation. If they are breaking the law, then just like anyone else in society, the police must deal with it. The approach of the French government is too extreme. Enforcing the law through the police force is a proportionate response that will achieve the same end - making French society a safer place.
Regardless, it is the duty of the French government to look after its fellow EU citizens. Romas in the Bronx in New York are doing so well unlike their European counterparts, who fare the worst on every social index. This is because the American government have helped to educate, and not just shun, the Romas. Education is the long-term, sustainable solution if we are to solve Europe's biggest social problem - and France have a duty to help fulfil that aim.
Instead, Sarkozy has chosen the easy, immoral route that forsakes their moral duty and is too draconian.
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