Friday 27 November 2009

Just as the smoke dissipated...

Just as the smoke started to dissipate...the fire was re-lit. A debt-laden Dubai state corporation, Dubai World, has suggested it may need to default on its interest bill.

The panic and uncertainty was fuelled by the fact that it a national holiday in the Middle East and USA, celebrating Eid and Thanksgiving respectively.

Shares plunged; weak currencies were hit; and £14 billion was lost by UK banks. Speculation and low confidence was not helped when a computer crash at the London Stock Exchange stopped trading for more than three hours (!)

However, it has to be noted that these debt of $80 billion are just chicken feed in comparison to bank bailouts. Therefore, if British Banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered did have to write off their loans, it would not dent their balance sheets beyond repair. What will be burnt to ashes is confidence: investment in Dubai could totally dry up.

Although this disaster has taken place in Dubai, there could be major repercussions around the world. Not only have British banks lent to businesses in the Gulf, but Dubai owns lots of assets in Britain - from part of the London Stock Exchange to Legoland to Travel Lodge.

For now we just have to hold our breath and wait for their emirate brother, Abu Dhabi, to put out the fire.

Fit for a hero?

Where are you based? "Airports around the world." Not a fugitive, not a homeless person or a lunatic; this was the response from Shirin Ebadi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has campaigned against infringements of human rights in Iran.

A character of this calibre has been effectively "threatened with death" by the Iranian government because she is a prominent figure who continues to denounce the regime. Officials in Iran have beaten up her husband and brother telling them to mute Dr. Ebadi.

Dr. Ebadi has raised awareness of the recent alleged electoral fraud and fought against the brutality towards protestors, opponents and the plethora of other grave human rights abuses. They claim she is conspiring against the state.

Wednesday 25 November 2009

The Recession's Winners

Sub-prime mortgages have been the catalyst for a disastrous recession: bank loans dried up; consumer confidence and demand plummeted; large and small firms went into liquidation; and unemployment is still rising.

However, for some companies, their adroitness has taken advantage of this recession. It was the most poignant moment of the recession when, one year today, Woolworth's crumbled - an unrivalled loss for customers and the high street. However, it left a gaping gap the market. Woolworth's held 14% of the market share for toys received. Those boots were quickly filled by competitors. Amongst many others, a notable beneficiary, was HMV who saw a rise in profits by 17%.

It is debatable how much of this rise can be attributed to competitors closing down: the government have pumped billions into the economy as part of the quantitative easing programme to bring liquidity to the markets, and thus increase lending and consumer demand.

Tuesday 24 November 2009

Behind the Curtains: Secret Loans

Today the Bank of England revealed that it lent RBS and HBOS £61.6bn, in an attempt to rescue the banks, last autumn. The move was rightly done in order to "prevent a loss of confidence spreading through the financial system."

The country has been treated like little children. The shocking truth has been kept from us for so long.

However, these measures must be seen in context. The loans were given as a "lender of last resort" at the height of the panic, just two weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The Bank of England also announced an increase in its quantitative easing programme to inject liquidity into the market, and thus encourage banks to loan responsibly to the public.

Saturday 21 November 2009

Not going up in an upturn.

We were told to worry about the recession. Now, worry about the upturn.

When it comes, it will not be as rosy as some might think. Just like unemployment, insolvencies are also a lagging economic indicator. Begbies Global Network, an insolvency firm, predicts an increase in insolvencies next year. This was the case after downturns in 1974, 1980 and 1990.

The biggest punch will be landed on small firms who risk a severe lack of working capital when they start growing again. This dilemma is exacerbated by the fact that there is very little competition between lenders. Foreign institutions have gone home and our domestic market is dominated by four banks. This is why the government refused to sell Northern Rock's lending assets to these banks.

Small firms do not have the best range of sources of finance. Apart from banks, their only saving grace is the government's loan guarantee scheme for enterprises.

In the upturn, they must hope for tax cuts - which is unlikely, considering our vast debts.

Thursday 19 November 2009

Pound Foolish

It is a truth universally known that climate change is happening now, and is inextricably linked to human activities. Carbon dioxide levels have sharply risen as we have industrialised over the last 300 years. In this context, it comes as a shocking, unwelcomed revelation that less than half the population believes that human activities are to blame for global warming, according to a poll from The Times.

The British public have proved to be foolish - but this also reveals a stark political failure. Politicians at Westminister have miserably failed to convey how serious our situation is. Until they achieve this, we have no chance of combating climate change. The fight against global warming is one that needs to start at grass-roots level: from switching off the lights to saving water to lobbying governments to change their ways.

Tuesday 10 November 2009

The Wall fell, now the inequality needs to.

Yesterday, at the Brandenurg Gate, there was a sense of jubilation - that 20 years ago, Germans were audacious enough to hack the Berlin Wall down. When West Germany was unified with the East Germany, they were also unifying themselves with an economic mess.

In 2009, that mess has yet to be cleared. East Germany still depressingly lags behind West Germany. They are significantly poorer with high unemployment rates. There is still much work to be done.

When the Wall fell, inequality did not fall with it.

Sunday 8 November 2009

Should the BNP have been allowed on Question Time?

The fundamental basis of our society and at the heart of British values is democracy. It is this notion that is Mr Griffin's biggest asset - his weapons against all those who want to deny his party a democratic platform.

For many years, Britain has prided herself as the pinnacle of democracy. A society where the right to free speech is treated with utmost respect, care and dignity. However, without doubt, there is a line: the right to free speech ceases to exist when it infringes on other people's rights. This is the case with the BNP. They have made a string of gratuitously provocative and mendacious statements about immigrants. By permitting the BNP to appear on Question Time, whether we like it or not, we are condoning hate speech. This is utterly unacceptable.

Conversely, there are those who vehemently argue that by denying the BNP a slot on Question Time, it would be counter-productive. If the government are perceived to be hiding the BNP from the public, it gives their party credibility. They will be able to claim that the only reason they were disallowed is because the government cannot challenge them. It would be disastrous to give them this validity. Instead, by drawing them into a reasoned and open debate, we can highlight their flaws and hypocrisies. Besides, their support is a symptom of ignorance. People lend their support to the BNP because they do not realise that this is a racist party, not an innocuous nationalistic one. Question Time has helped to cure this problem.

Perhaps it did educate some people - but probably, their appearance on Question Time, fuelled new support as well. The programme last week captured record audiences; amongst this were many impressionable young children. Their exposure to Mr Griffin's fallacious claims might not have been such to them. Innocently, they may have believed what he said - and now, those beliefs could be instilled in them. It is an unforgivable crime, on our behalf, that we are exposing our children to such views.

Furthermore, the BNP on Question Time will have undoubtedly undermined Britain's reputation. We have given the BNP a platform to attack our own citizens. The world will look at this decision with disdain. Britain is the melting pot of the globe, a haven for many immigrants. This makes the decision even more surprising.

Although there are reasons for allowing the BNP on Question Time, I believe it was the wrong decision. Mr Griffin is a distasteful figure who has great offence to the British public. He has been given a patina of legitimacy that he does not deserve.

Saturday 7 November 2009

Checks and balances

Power to the people - this is what democracy is about. Thus, it is absurd that the Parliament is the highest authority that exists in Britain. If it passes a law, it is law. The only checks and balances for Parliament, are inside Parliament instead. This is a pressing problem that must be addressed.

It is time for a codified constitution ratified by the public, just like every other liberal democracy (apart from Israel and New Zealand.) Otherwise, politicians have the power to treat us with contempt. It is in this context that there needs to be something higher than statute law to really keep Parliament in check.

Thursday 5 November 2009

The death of trust.

After a long patrol, hot and tired, they took of their armour. Then there was chaos. A British-trained Afgan policemen sprayed bullets that would not only kill 5 British soldiers but also, the most crucial element of the handover to the Afgan police - trust.

When these men were assigned missions in Helmand, Afghanistan, they knew the dangers. They could be kiled by a roadside bomb, insurgents or even taken hostage. But what they could not expect was to be killed in their own base - the safest area in miles.

Gulbuddin, the man who fired the shots, was trained by the British. He is one of many that are being trained by NATO troops so that Afghanistan can tackle insurgency and crime on their own, when foreign troops widthdraw. His actions will instill fear in British soldiers who will not be able to even trust their own side because it could be that the Taleban has infiltrated into the Afghan police force

Wednesday 4 November 2009

The Final Signature

It is official: more powers will be centralised in Brussels; member states will have less of a right to veto EU laws; and we will have a pesident and foreign minister of Europe. The Treaty of Lisbon has been ratified.

Yesterday, the Czech Republic finally put pen to paper, ratifying the treaty. It marked the end to years of setbacks after setbacks in the campaign to reform the EU.

The EU exists to serve the people of Europe. However, the Lisbon treaty has been nothing short of a democratic nightmare - the electorate did not have a say. When they did, they were ignored until they gave the "correct" answer. David Cameron, who fought for a referendum, has now closed that door, citing that it would be futile now that it was locked in EU law.

Now comes the next question: who will be the President of Europe? But first, the role needs to be defined. They have yet to decide whether it would be a "chairman or chief" position. If the EU wants to pump its political muscle around the world, with easy access to Washington, Moscow and Beijing, Blair is our man. However, it seems that EU leaders, especially France and Germany do not want someone with bigger political clout than them. If this happens, Europe will have missed a vital opportunity.

Tuesday 3 November 2009

Does private tuition really create a two-tier education?

New figures show that 1 in 5 children receive private tuition. There are worries that this is creating a education divide - a social injustice where families who are well-off can afford to give their children an edge but poorer working class families cannot. I vehemently disagree.

Success does not come just because you have a good teacher. Yes, it helps, but more important, is the child's attitude and commitment to his academic work. My philosophy is that if you work hard - no matter what standard of education you get at school - you can get to the top. Teachers at school or even tuition is not intended to feed you all those A grades. It is merely a budge in the right direction.

Parents who cannot afford tuition need not fret. If your child is encouraged to study hard at school and home - they will achieve.

I do not have tuition, and have survived. Whether you have it or not - to be honest, it does not make too much difference.

Monday 2 November 2009

What is point of Quangos?

Advisory Quangos are specialists, who not from the elected ranks, that advise and guide the government to shape public policy.

If the government have already made their decision, then what's the point of having these advisers in the first place? Alan Johnson has scored an own goal by sacking Professor Nutt from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD). He was sacked because he did not stick to the government line.

It is a disgrace that the government has the audacity to sack an expert because his views based on scientific evidence are not in line with the government. In July, David Nutt gave a lecture on drug harms and the current legislation. He does not agree with the class rankings for cannabis and Ecstasy.

The appropriate response from the government would have been to engage in critical debate to ascertain the suitable class for the drugs in question. These advisory boards are specialists, who are better informed than politicians - not a group of raving lunatics.

I feel the principle of quangos has been fatally undermined. These boards are there to help make the right decisions that are not politically motivated. It seems as if they are only wanted if they agree with the current government policy. A waste of time and money.

Sunday 1 November 2009

Unemployment will keep rising.

There are more than 230 million people unemployed across the world, according to the UN's International Labour Organisation. This accounts for 7% of the world's workforce. Some countries are even worse off, like the USA, who have recorded high unemployed at 9.9%.

These depressing figures will not be changing any time soon - even though some countries, from Germany to France to Brazil, have come out of the recession. This is because unemployment is a lagging indicator. Once demand in the economy increases, and companies start to produce more, there is a certain time period before they start to actually expand and employ more people. Thus, even though some countries like France have recorded 0.3% growth this quarter, it will be a while before the social costs of the recession go away.